Israel alarmed by Egypt’s expanding Somalia footprint
Tel Aviv (Somalia Today) – Israeli political and security circles have sounded the alarm over Egypt’s rapidly expanding military and diplomatic footprint in Somalia, viewing the push as a direct counter-measure to Israel’s own deepening position in the strategic Horn of Africa.
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Decision-makers in Tel Aviv are closely monitoring Cairo’s rising influence around the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, Israeli broadcaster i24 News reported, noting that Egyptian officials are simultaneously tracking Israel’s expanding regional role.
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The focus follows Israel’s recognition of Somaliland, the breakaway region that declared independence in 1991 but remains unrecognized by most of the international community.
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Cairo views Israel’s engagement with Somaliland as far more than a diplomatic gesture, Israeli security sources cited in the report assessed.
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Instead, sources believe Egypt fears the move offers Israel a strategic gateway near the Bab al-Mandab Strait, specifically the deep-sea port of Berbera as a logistical backup to the port of Eilat.
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Repeated Houthi attacks on commercial shipping have highlighted the waterway’s instability in recent years, forcing major carriers like Maersk to reroute vessels around southern Africa.
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These disruptions severely impacted revenue from the Suez Canal, a pillar of the Egyptian economy that President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi said last year cost the state about $800 million a month.
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While Egypt frames its policy in terms of regional stability, Israeli analysts warn that strategic anxiety drives Cairo as external powers compete for influence over shipping lanes and partnerships in fragile coastal states.
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The Mogadishu pivot
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Geography drives Egypt’s unease, the i24 report suggests: durable security cooperation between Israel and Somaliland would place Israeli assets closer to the Red Sea approaches and the Bab al-Mandab corridor.
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The Somaliland region sits directly opposite Yemen, where instability has repeatedly sent shockwaves through global markets, driving up insurance costs and freight rates.
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Sources in Tel Aviv worry a permanent Egyptian presence in Somalia could include electronic surveillance capabilities designed to monitor Israeli naval traffic moving from the Indian Ocean toward the Red Sea.
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Against this backdrop, Cairo has intensified its backing for Somalia’s federal government under President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, positioning itself as a defender of Somalia’s territorial integrity.
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Following a 2024 security pact, Egypt shipped arms—including heavy artillery and anti-tank weaponry—to Mogadishu, a move diplomats viewed as a significant tightening of strategic ties.
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Thousands of Egyptian military personnel may now operate in Somalia, either under bilateral arrangements or within African Union frameworks, Israeli sources claimed, though official numbers remain unverified.
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Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty has repeatedly described Cairo’s support for Somalia’s unity as “unconditional,” implicitly rejecting any international acceptance of breakaway Somaliland.
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The Nile dispute
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The long-running dispute over the Nile waters compounds friction in the Horn.
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Israeli assessments indicate Egypt fears a scenario where Israel deepens cooperation with Ethiopia, Cairo’s rival in negotiations over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD).
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By establishing a military footprint in Somalia, analysts suggest Cairo is attempting a strategic encirclement of Ethiopia, pressuring Addis Ababa from its eastern flank while blocking Ethiopian access to the sea via Somaliland.
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The dam dispute remains a flashpoint for nationalism in both Cairo and Addis Ababa. President Donald Trump has offered to mediate the impasse, which Egypt views as a critical threat to its water security.
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For Israel, the concern remains that a solidified Egypt-Somalia alignment could complicate efforts to build partnerships in Africa, turning the Horn into an extension of Middle Eastern geopolitical rivalries.
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“Israel is seeking to project influence deeper into Africa and reshape regional alliances,” said Israeli commentator Edy Cohen, describing the region as a high-stakes arena where maritime insecurity and great-power competition collide.
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