UAE arms flights pivot to Israel, Ethiopia after Somalia exit

The diversion of the Antonov An-124 to Israeli and Ethiopian airfields marks a significant escalation in the proxy struggle between Gulf powers.

The UAE is scrambling to maintain supply lines to its allies in Sudan amid a spiraling rivalry with Saudi Arabia that has upended alliances across the Horn of Africa.

According to flight-tracking data, analysed by Middle East Eye and verified by open-source monitors, the Ukrainian-built transporter, operated by UAE-based Maximus Air, began shuttling between Abu Dhabi, Israel’s Negev desert, and an Ethiopian air force base in early January.

This new flight path emerges just as the UAE faces a humiliating withdrawal from Somalia. The government in Mogadishu recently annulled defence agreements, and Emirati forces vacated their key base in Bosaso following a diplomatic breakdown sparked by Israel’s recognition of the breakaway region of Somaliland.

Turning to Israel and Ethiopia

The aircraft’s routing through Israel adds a volatile new element to the conflict. Between December 28 and 31, the aircraft (tail number UR-ZYD) made repeated round trips between Bahrain’s Sheikh Isa Air Base and the Israeli Air Force’s Ovda base.

Ovda, located in the southern Negev desert near the Red Sea city of Eilat, frequently serves as a hub for heavy military transport.

While the UAE and Israel normalized ties in 2020, using Israeli soil as a waypoint for a plane linked to African conflicts will likely inflame regional tensions.

Days later, the focus shifted to the Horn of Africa. On January 3, 12, and 15, the plane flew from Abu Dhabi to Harar Meda, the main base of the Ethiopian Air Force.

This logistical pivot suggests the UAE is actively seeking alternative staging grounds after losing its foothold in Somalia.

Meanwhile, Mogadishu’s anger stems from Israel’s move to recognise Somaliland’s independence—a diplomatic maneuver regional observers widely view as coordinated with Abu Dhabi to secure the port of Berbera.

“The uncertainty at the UAE’s bases in Berbera and Bosaso has forced the redeployment of Emirati personnel to Ethiopia,” a regional security source said. “Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed is now crucial to the UAE’s strategy.”

Fueling the Sudan war

The primary beneficiary of these logistical shifts appears to be the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), the paramilitary group fighting the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) since April 2023.

Although the UAE consistently denies arming the RSF, UN experts have cited credible evidence of weapons shipments fueling the group’s campaign.

The Antonov An-124 is capable of carrying heavy payloads, which Maximus Air describes as holding up to “21 Toyota Land Cruisers” or four military helicopters.

“Evidence that an An-124… has been making repeated sorties between Abu Dhabi and this airfield near an area seeing increased uptick in RSF presence should be of global concern,” said Nathaniel Raymond of Yale’s Humanitarian Research Lab.

Furthermore, intelligence sources indicate the RSF has recently acquired advanced weaponry, including dismantled fighter jets—Sukhoi Su-24s and MiG-25s—which cargo planes reportedly fly to Ethiopia or eastern Libya before crews reassemble them.

Saudi Arabia strikes back

These flights unfold against the backdrop of an intense rivalry between the UAE and Saudi Arabia, two Gulf powerhouses now supporting opposing sides in Sudan’s civil war.

While the UAE faces widespread accusations of backing the RSF, Saudi Arabia has thrown its financial and diplomatic weight behind the Sudanese army (SAF), viewing the state military as the best vehicle for stability.

In response, Riyadh has facilitated a massive procurement drive for the SAF. Pakistani officials confirmed to Reuters earlier this month that negotiations are advanced on a $1.5 billion defence package for the Sudanese army, including JF-17 Block III fighter jets, K-8 attack aircraft, and over 200 combat drones.

In turn, “The UAE has been thrown onto the back foot,” said Jalel Harchaoui, a North Africa analyst. He noted that Saudi Arabia’s recent diplomatic maneuvers in Yemen—where Saudi-backed forces launched military action to oust the Emirati-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC) from Aden—have strengthened Riyadh’s hand.

Still, “While several regional actors will adjust to Riyadh’s overtures, Ethiopia will not,” Harchaoui added. “Addis Ababa will stick with the UAE. The Emiratis are therefore focusing military operations on Ethiopian territory.”

The ‘gun-runner’ history

Sanctions monitors know the specific aircraft used for these flights, UR-ZYD, well.

A 2021 UN Panel of Experts report identified the plane as part of a covert airbridge supplying General Khalifa Haftar in Libya, violating a UN arms embargo. The panel estimated each flight delivered up to 18 military vehicles.

Haftar’s forces in eastern Libya have served as a key conduit for UAE aid reaching the RSF in Sudan. However, Haftar is now facing immense pressure from Riyadh to sever those ties.

Haftar’s Al-Kufra airbase—a major transit hub—announced a sudden “temporary closure” for runway repairs this week, a move analysts interpret as an attempt to buy time as the warlord navigates the Saudi-UAE rift.

With traditional routes through Libya and Somalia facing new constraints, the UAE’s reliance on the Israel-Ethiopia corridor highlights a desperate determination to keep supply lines open.

“The Horn of Africa is now at the mercy of what happens in Riyadh and Abu Dhabi,” said Sudanese analyst Kholood Khair. “We are seeing the entrenchment of this Gulf imperium.”

The UAE foreign ministry and Maximus Air did not respond to requests for comment regarding the nature of the cargo delivered to Ovda and Harar Meda.